The Big Sandy Mountaineer -

Alan Merrill, president of Montana Farmer's Union, said that Montana Farmers Union had a very complete paper commissioned on the impact of Climate Change on Montana's Agriculture Economy.

The report was written by Power Consulting Inc.

"The Mountaineer" is including a summary of the paper for several reasons. We are, above all, an agricultural community. If even a portion of the report turns out to be valid, both farmers and ranchers need to be in the know on this important subject.

Second, a person cannot live in this area for any length of time and not notice that the climate is changing. We can plant earlier (although this is not a good indicator because we can have killer frosts late in the spring). But the fall growing season is getting longer. That can be used to the advantage of anyone tilling and planting the soil.

We also know it is getting warmer in our area. A very good indicator of that is that rattlesnakes are moving higher and higher into the Bear Paw Mountains then they ever have before. It used to be that on Beaver Creek, Rotary Hill was sort of a line of demarcation. No rattlesnakes south of Rotary and lots north. Now there are rattlesnakes as far south as Kiwanis Camp.

On Little Box Elder Creek the no rattlesnake line used to be at the Faber School. These days there are rattlesnakes found south of that school.

And on Clear Creek the line of no rattlesnakes used to be the Mosser Bridge. These days rattlesnakes have moved south in that valley.

So, climate is changing. What is not clear is if man has been the cause of that climate change or whether is a combination of man and a cycle or if it is just a crazy cycle we are living in.

And some people cry "Wolf" when there really is not a wolf at the door at all.

Take the glaciers in Glacier National Park. When I was a Red Bus Driver one of the first questions asked of us was if there were any glaciers left or had they all melted by the time the families vacation came along?

Outrageous but that is what those people had been told over and over again to think.

There used to be around 135 glaciers in Glacier National Park. Now there are 25. But let's be clear about one thing. All 135 glaciers are still in Glacier. They have just stopped fitting into the government criteria about what makes a glacier.

If memory serves a glacier must be a hundred feet thick, twenty-five acres in circumference and most of all, the glacier must be moving. If they don't move, they are not considered glaciers anymore although they are all there still hanging in high valleys throughout the Park.

Most of the glaciers being declassified so to speak were declassified because they no longer move. But they are all still there.

People fret about the state of Grinnell Glacier that seems to be melting more quickly than some. However, in a hundred years that glacier will still be seen at the top of the Many Glacier valley.

Even more important was in the ten years I spent in Glacier, in three of those years, the glaciers actually got larger because of cold summers. Guess what. No one ever mentioned those years or that the glaciers could be getting larger.

The bottom line is that no matter what is happening no matter what is being reported, truth or lies, if we all just are the very best stewards of the land that we can be, we are going to be just fine!

The Impact of Climate Change on Montana's Agricultural Economy

Executive Summary

1. Climate Science and Projected Climate Change in Montana

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made it abundantly clear that human- caused greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant cause of the observed warming of the earth since the mid-20th century and that warming will continue through to the next century. Using geographically more detailed versions of Global Climate Models, the earth's observed and predicted warming can be brought down to the regional level of U.S. states and parts of the larger states to analyze geographically much more specific observed and predicted changes. Using the Third National Climate Assessment, we break Montana out of the Great Plains states to view the likely changes that Montana will see in the future due to climate change. We focus on a business-as-usual scenario where the world does not work to try and reduce the release of greenhouse gasses and, as a consequence, the mean global temperature is predicted to rise by 6.5 degrees (F) by 2100.

We focus on the two dominant variables driving climate change in Montana: temperature and precipitation.

Temperature: Montana is predicted to see a temperature rise of 4-5 degrees (F) by 2055. The temperature change will be greater in the winter with a temperature change of as much as 6.5 degrees (F) in the northeastern portion of the state. Montana is predicted to have a decreased number of days where the temperature drops below 10 degrees (F) (at least 15 fewer days and as many as 30 depending on the geographic location). Montana is predicted to see a decrease in the number of days that the temperature drops below 32 degrees (F) (at least 20 fewer days and as many as 40 depending on the geographic location). For the winter it is the increased number of warm days and the increase in precipitation that have the largest effect on the plants that grow within the different Montana ecosystems.

Montana is predicted to see an increase in the number of days where the temperature exceeds 95 degrees (F) (at least 5 more days and as many as 15). Montana is predicted to see an increase in the number of frost free days (at least 15 more and as many as 35 depending on the geographic location). For the summer, it is the days of extreme heat and the lack of precipitation that has the largest effect on the plants that grow within the different Montana ecosystems.

Precipitation: Although precipitation is less certain within the more geographically detailed Global Climate Models because of the existence of multi-year weather cycles (like El Nino or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the lack of data specifically looking at these cycles, precipitation is an important and controlling variable for plant growth in the different Montana ecosystems.

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Montana's Agricultural Economy. Montana is predicted to get more precipitation by 2055. Most of Montana is predicted to receive 3-6 percent more precipitation while the northeast portion will receive 6-9 percent more precipitation. The ecologically critical point for precipitation is when it falls. Significantly more precipitation will fall in the winter and significantly less precipitation will fall in the summer. This is especially true for western Montana where precipitation will be 5-10 percent lower in the summer and 10-15 percent more in the winter.

Because Montana is predicted to warm in the winter, less precipitation will fall during the winter as snow and more will come in the form of rain. Because Montana is predicted to get less precipitation in the summer and the summer is predicted to be hotter there will be significant plant stress due to drought and extreme heat during the summer. The combination of changes in precipitation and temperature may have large impacts on the industries, like agriculture, in Montana that are dependent on a climate that many Montanans mistakenly see as largely stable despite its wide range of variability at any given time.

Less snow-pack in the high country means less runoff for our streams in late spring and early summer, and the runoff will come earlier.

Disease and beetle kill will increase as the temperature increases and the summer moisture decreases and the native trees are too stressed to resist. The very composition of our forests will change causing the loss of the white bark pine and a transition from Ponderosa Pine and Douglas-fir to spruce-fir. The grasslands of Montana will convert to sagebrush and other scrub brush dominant species.

Livestock and rangeland will have to compete with invasive species that are less palatable to the cattle. The forage that cattle currently rely on will have less nitrogen, as the plants grow too fast from the increased carbon uptake in the spring while lacking the nitrogen necessary to keep the nitrogen ratios at levels that will be nutritive for the cattle. The rangeland will be stressed during the summer and autumn because of the lack of precipitation and the increased number of very hot days.

The Montana wheat industry will have to balance a potential increase in winter wheat harvest with a dramatic loss in spring wheat. The shorter, warmer, and wetter winters may initially allow for an increased harvest in winter wheat that is more than offset by a decline in spring wheat. However, by mid-century, the higher temperatures and depletion of nitrogen in the soil will also decrease winter wheat yields.

Based on the application of the recent climate science projections for Montana, we concluded that one of the greatest economic impacts will be on the state's agricultural activities, specifically declines in grain crops, especially wheat, livestock, and cattle production.

The Relative Importance of the Agricultural Sector

Forecasted climate change in Montana puts aspects of agriculture at risk of significant change and potential serious loss. For that reason we obtained estimates of the relative importance of agriculture to Montanans and the Montana economy.

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Montana's Agricultural Economy. Montana's grain production and cattle raising are the source, directly and indirectly, of over $3.3 billion in labor earnings and about 111,000 jobs.

See Next week's paper for the rest of the story.