The Big Sandy Mountaineer -

Oh, no, “The Mountaineer” is going to try and predict the weather once again. Recently on the street one wag was talking to another and the one said, “Why don’t they just give up. They are worse than the National Weather Service!”

I imagined that the two were talking of a recent weather story that was written at “The Mountaineer” and was none too accurate.

I had to laugh because although our story was none too accurate, we got it from the National Weather Service so we could not possibly be worse than they are.

We don’t knock the National Weather Service too much because they actually do answer their telephone and have someone there to tell interested reporters what they or more specifically their models think is going to be happening on the Old Dry most any time of the year.

Take the rest of November for instance.

The National Weather Service Models indicate that during the rest of November there will be a better than average chance of above average precipitation.

For that same period of time there is a better than average chance of below normal temperature.

Does that mean that the long summer of drought is over we wanted to know?

It does not mean that at all according to the National Weather Service. A possible end of the drought would maybe occur in this neck of the woods with a good accumulation of winter snow followed by a slow runoff where the snow would saturate the ground.

There are National Weather Service models out now that take us through the end of January and those models look just about like the models for November.

So, for December and January, it is above average chances of precipitation. and above average chances of colder weather.

Really long range models taking us through April do not change much either. Colder than normal and more precipitation. than average.

And, yet none of that means we are out of a drought situation.

The National Weather Service person in Great Falls said, “Look it took several years go get into this drought. It is probably going to take some time to get out of it.”

So, gentle readers, hunker down, haul that wood in for the fireplace and be prepared for a long Montana winter.

But remember we and the National Weather Service could be wrong and we could experience a winter like we are in Maui!

If that is not the case, take heart and heed the advice of the words over my fireplace.

“What matter how the night behaved.

What matter how the north wind raved.

Blow high, blow low, not all its snow

Could quench our hearth fire’s ruddy glow.”